SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/25-26, likely voters):
Jim Marshall (D-inc): 49
Rick Goddard (R): 45
(MoE: ±4%)
To my knowledge, this is the first publicly-released poll of this race, and it shows Marshall in another tough fight after hanging on by the skin of his teeth in 2006. Goddard, a retired Air Force Major General, has not made a lot of noise in his first bid for public office, and the fact that neither party committee has dropped a dime on this race seemed to suggest that Marshall would have an easier time this year, so this poll comes as a mild surprise.
Is it possible that Marshall’s very public support of the Wall Street bailout package be causing him some problems right now? It would’ve been nice if Roll Call included a question about that issue in its full polling here.
Of note: SUSA pegs the black vote at 31% here, which is very close to the most recent census figures.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 56-40 in this district. Bush beat Kerry here by 61-39, and Gore by 58-42. More details are available here (pdf).
this seems like a could be a factor
The last of any polls made me nervous. Odd that none of the major analysts caught this one. They all have it rated leans dem or likely dem.
It looks like it’s going to be a bad cycle for Republicans, conservative Democrats, and people named Kanjorski.